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eine andere Welt machen!" (Aus der Abschluss-Erklärung des Kongresses). …
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returns. Our results suggest that the decomposition model produces higher forecast and directional accuracy than any of the …
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history where a small event had a cataclysmic consequence, we propose a novel view of the current state of the world via the …
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react in a timely fashion to changes in the environment, leading to real-time forecast improvements relative to other … methods of density forecast combination, such as Bayesian model averaging, optimal (static) pools, and equal weights. We show …
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We derive a measure of aggregate systemic risk, designated CATFIN, that complements bank-specific systemic risk measures by forecasting macroeconomic downturns six months into the future using out-of-sample tests conducted with US, European and Asian bank data. Consistent with bank...
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