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There appears to be a consensus that the recent instability in global financial markets may be attributable in part to the failure of financial modeling. More specifically, current risk models have failed to properly assess the risks associated with large adverse stock price behavior. In this...
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This paper constructs a global tail risk (GTR) index and examines the role of GTR in predicting the volatility of … international stock markets. Our empirical results emphasize that GTR contains valuable information to predict the stock volatility … improve the forecasting accuracy of international stock market volatility, especially considering the time-varying regime …
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