The global financial crisis of 2007-2008 focused the attention of financial authorities on developing methods to forecast and avoid future financial crises of similar magnitude. We contribute to the literature on crisis prediction in several important ways. First, we develop an early warning...

Opportunity and self-interest -- Scope and tradition of social science -- Markets under central planning -- Russia's historical legacy -- Markets everywhere -- Institutional choice -- History matters -- Concluding discussion -- Implications for social science