The Asia-Pacific region's currency markets are generally efficient within-country when tested using the Johansen (1991, 1995) cointegration technique whereas market efficiency fails to hold when tested using Fama's (1984) conventional regression. Using the Pilbeam and Olmo (2011) model, we...

The main objective of this paper is to investigate the diversification role of currency momentum for carry trade crashes during the turbulent periods surrounding the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis and the 2007-2008 global financial crisis. The motivation is to use an important tendency of...

We develop a novel financial market model in which the stock markets of two countries are linked via and with the foreign exchange market. To be precise, there are domestic and foreign speculators in each of the two stock markets which rely either on linear technical or linear fundamental...

Using daily data of four currencies (Japanese yen, euro, British pound, and Australian dollar) in terms of the U.S. dollar, and these four currencies in terms of the euro from January 2004 to February 2008, we examine the lead-lag relationship between the credit default swap (CDS) market and the...

This paper examines whether the 20072008 global financial crisis (GFC) played any role in changing the state of efficiency for the foreign exchange markets. For comparison purposes, I assess market efficiency based on the forward unbiasedness hypothesis (FUH) as well as the profitability of...

I examine the profitability of three simple foreign exchange technical trading rules (moving average, momentum, and relative strength index) before, during and after the 2007-2008 global financial crisis. The overall findings reveal that these technical indicators could produce statistically...

On September 3-4, 2009 SUERF and Utrecht University School of Economicsorganized the Colloquium "The Quest for Stability" in Utrecht, the Netherlands. The papers included in this SUERF Study are based on contributions to the Colloquium.

There is a broad consensus that the quality of the political system and its institutions are fundamental for a country’s prosperity. The paper focuses on olitical events in Italy over the past 35 years and asks whether the adoption of the euro in 1999 has helped insulate Italy’s financial...

The deepening of the recent crisis was driven by the simultaneous devaluation of stock wealth, housing wealth and commodity wealth. The potential for this devaluation process had been “built up” during the boom of stock prices, house prices and commodity prices between 2003 and 2007. Hence,...

When US dollar interbank markets malfunctioned during the global financial crisis of 2008, many non-US financial institutions relied heavily on FX swap markets for US dollar funds. This one-sided market induced a risk premium of the FX swap-implied US dollar rate across a range of funding...