story-telling and policy analysis were in the forefront of applications since its inception, the forecasting perspective of … models are inferior in ex-ante forecasting a crisis. Surprisingly however, it turned out that not all but those models which … only detect the turning point of the Austrian business cycle early in 2008 but they also succeeded in forecasting the …

of uncertainty indicators for forecasting industrial production, employment and the stock market, using different … negative impact on the economic variables for the euro area. We also perform a forecasting analysis, where we assess the merits … models including the original financial uncertainty index in terms of forecasting. …

We propose a parsimonious semiparametric method for macroeconomic forecasting during episodes of sudden changes. Based …