This paper studies the spillover effects of the ECB's monetary policies on non-euro area countries over the period 2004-2016, using a GVAR methodology, applied to a large sample of countries and an ample set of variables. Monetary policies are proxied by short-term interest rates and the Wu and...

We simulate a simplified version of the price process including bubbles and crashes proposed in Kreuser and Sornette (2018). The price process is defined as a geometric random walk combined with jumps modelled by separate, discrete distributions associated with positive (and negative) bubbles....

Expansion and collapse are two key features of a financial asset bubble. Bubble expansion may be modeled using a mildly explosive process. Bubble implosion may take several different forms depending on the nature of the collapse and therefore requires some flexibility in modeling. This paper...

This paper suggests that there was a negative bubble in oil prices in 2014/15, which decreased them beyond the level justified by economic fundamentals. This proposition is corroborated by two sets of bubble detection strategies: the first set consists of tests for financial bubbles, while the...

Expansion and collapse are two key features of a financial asset bubble. Bubble expansion may be modeled using a mildly explosive process. Bubble implosion may take several different forms depending on the nature of the collapse and therefore requires some flexibility in modeling. This paper...

Well-anchored inflation expectations have become a key indicator for the credibility of a central bank’s inflation target. Since the outbreak of the recent financial crisis, the existence and the degree of de-anchoring of U.S. inflation expectations have been under debate. This paper...

We estimate Taylor rule models for the euro area using Consensus Economics forecasts of inflation and output growth for the period 1998.6-2010.8. We first examine whether the recent financial crisis has affected ECB policies. Our results indicate that the ECB puts stronger emphasis on...