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This paper aims an empirical investigation of uncertainty in the Euro Zone as well as the US. For this purpose I … conduct a factor analysis of uncertainty measures starting in 2001 until the end of 2011. I use survey-based data provided by … implied volatility of stock market movements. Each measure shows an increase in uncertainty during the last years marked by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009548349
Austrian Ultimatum, which in retrospect insured the imminent start of a protracted, pan-European war. Signs of uncertainty … disasters and related uncertainty shocks. The analysis demonstrates that, following a four-and-a-half-month closure, the NYSE …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012978570
, ultimate lenders and financial intermediaries. The model is used to investigate the impact of uncertainty about the likelihood … between risk and uncertainty is implemented by applying the Gilboa-Schmeidler (1989) maxmin with multiple priors framework to … analysis include: (i) An unanticipated increase in bailout uncertainty raises interest rates, the volume of defaults in both …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013122330
The financial crisis and its aftermath have raised numerous questions about the appropriate role of financial stability considerations in the conduct of monetary policy. This paper develops a simple example of the possible connections between financial stability and monetary policy. We find that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013078454
We develop a general equilibrium model of self-fulfilling bank runs in a setting without aggregate risk. The key novelty is the way in which the banking system’s assets and liabilities are connected. Banks issue loans to entrepreneurs who sell goods to (impatient) households, which in turn pay...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013406490
We develop a general equilibrium model of self-fulfilling bank runs in a setting without aggregate risk. The key novelty is the way in which the banking system’s assets and liabilities are connected. Banks issue loans to entrepreneurs who sell goods to households, which in turn pay for the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014239452
We model a safe asset market with investors valuing safety, investors valuing liquidity, and constrained dealers. While safety investors and liquidity investors can interact symbiotically with offsetting trades in times of stress, we show that liquidity investors’ strategic interaction harbors...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013404549
We explore the dynamic effects of news about a future technology improvement which turns out ex post to be overoptimistic. We find that it is difficult to generate a boom-bust cycle (a period in which stock prices, consumption, investment and employment all rise and then crash) in response to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605001
Die Frage nach der Kausalität fällt in die Methodologie. Methodologie ist in den Wirtschaftswissenschaften ein Bereich, der sowohl bei Ökonomen als auch bei Philosophen kaum Beachtung findet. Ökonomik hat sich ursprünglich als eine kausal erklärende Wissenschaft verstanden. Sie wollte für...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011422191
In August 2007 the United Kingdom experienced its first bank run in over 140 years. Although Northern Rock was not a particularly large bank (it was at the time ranked 7th in terms of assets) it was nevertheless a significant retail bank and a substantial mortgage lender. In fact, ten years...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011689937