We propose a novel theory of financial contagion. We study global coordination games of regime change in two regions with an initially uncertain correlation of regional fundamentals. A crisis in region 1 is a wake-up call to investors in region 2 that induces a reassessment of local...

We characterize asset return linkages during periods of stress by an extremal dependence measure. Contrary to correlation analysis, this nonparametric measure is not predisposed toward the normal distribution and can allow for nonlinear relationships. Our estimates for the G-5 countries suggest...

This paper considers financial, operational, solvency, and performance ratios, in order to detect when there were balance sheets’ variations related to the 1994 Mexican currency crisis. Quarterly results for 88 non-financial Mexican companies that survived the crisis are used, and tests for...

Die globale Finanzkrise und der damit verbundene dramatische Einbruch der privaten Kapitalflüsse hat die Volkswirtschaften der baltischen Länder in besonderem Maße getroffen. Das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt ist im ersten Halbjahr 2009 in Lettland um 18,8 Prozent, in Estland um 15,7 Prozent und...

The causes of the 2008 collapse and subsequent surge in global capital flows remain an open and highly controversial issue. Employing a factor model coupled with a dataset of high-frequency portfolio capital flows to 50 economies, the paper finds that common shocks – key crisis events as well...

This paper employs a standard Tobin-Markowitz framework to analyse the determinants of capital flows into the CIS countries. Using data from 1996-2006, we find that the Russian financial crisis of 1998 has had a profound impact on capital flows into the CIS (both directly and indirectly)....

On 23 June 2010, the Magyar Nemzeti Bank and SUERF jointly organised a conference on "The Future of Banking in CESEE after the Financial Crisis", incorporating the SUERF Annual Lecture, delivered by Manfred Schepers, Vice President, Finance at the European Bank for Reconstruction and...

The Central Bank of Ireland and SUERF organised a joint conference in Dublin on 20th September, 2010 on the general theme of Regulation and Banking after the Crisis. In the best traditions of SUERF, the programme included papers and presentations from the three main constituencies of SUERF:...

The seminal Barro (2006) closed-economy model of the equity risk premium in the presence of extreme events ("disasters") allowed for leverage in the form of risky corporate debt which defaulted only in states when the Government defaulted on its debt. The probability of default was therefore...