We construct a network-based turbulence score that proves useful for analyzing the relationship between financial interconnectedness, and global market risk, and for identifying systemically important markets, with the highest contribution to financial turbulence. We apply our measure to study...

Option market prices have often been regarded as a window on investor sentiment about the future price behavior of the underlying asset. Such prices can be very different from model prices and have long been noted by implied volatility plots revealing “smiles” or “smirks”. In this paper...

This paper proposes a framework for modelling financial contagion that is based on SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) transmission models from epidemic theory. This class of models addresses two important features of contagion modelling, which are a common shortcoming of most existing...

In this paper, we identify initial macroeconomic and financial market conditions that help explain the distinct response of the real economy of a particular country to the recent global financial crisis. Using four measures of crisis severity, we examine a data set with over 90 potential...

We develop a novel framework using Bayesian networks to capture distress dependence in the context of counterparty credit risk. This allows us to calibrate the probability of distress of an entity conditional on the distress of a different entity. We apply our methodology to wrong-way risk model...

This paper examines the impact of climate shocks on 13 European economies analysing jointly business and financial cycles, in different phases and disentangling the effects for different sector channels. A Bayesian Panel Markov-switching framework is proposed to jointly estimate the impact of...

The association between economic and financial stabilities and influence of macroeconomic policies on the financial sector creates scope of active policy role in financial stability. As a contribution to the existing body of knowledge, this study has analysed the implications of macroeconomic...

We study market perception of sovereign credit risk in the euro area during the financial crisis. In our analysis we use a parsimonious CDS pricing model to estimate the probability of default (PD) and the loss given default (LGD) as perceived by financial markets. We find that separate...

We study market perception of sovereign credit risk in the Euro area during the financial crisis. In our analysis we use a parsimonious CDS pricing model to estimate market implied measures of the probability of default (PD) and of the loss given default (LGD). We find that separate...

The purpose of this paper is the construction of an early warning indicator for systemic risk using entropy measures. The analysis is based on the cross-sectional distribution of marginal systemic risk measures such as Marginal Expected Shortfall, Delta CoVaR and network connectedness. These...