Macroeconomic imbalances increase the vulnerability of an economy to adverse shocks, which in turn can lead to crises with severe economic and social costs. We propose an early warning model that predicts such crises. We identify a set of macroeconomic indicators capturing domestic and external...

The Euro area faces zero inflation paired with low economic growth, at a time when the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates and large budget deficits are constraining conventional monetary and fiscal policy. In this article, we discuss the theoretical and empirical evidence on...