We describe a general equilibrium model with a banking system in which the deposit bank collects deposits from households and the merchant bank provides funds to firms. Merchant banks borrow collateralized short-term funds from deposit banks. In a financial downturn, as the value of collateral...

I consider the possibility that individual agents' savings and portfolio choices can have negative externalities on public finances, whenever retirement consumption drops below a minimum level. Within this framework, I discuss optimal pension design. I show the optimality of two policies. The...

I consider the possibility that individual agents' savings and portfolio choices can have negative externalities on public finances, whenever retirement consumption drops below a minimum level. Within this framework, I discuss optimal pension design. I show the optimality of two policies. The...

Das Geschehen auf den Finanzmärkten hängt vom individuellen Verhalten ab, wird aber auch wesentlich bestimmt durch die Ausgestaltung des Finanzsystems, das heisst durch die Rollen, die den einzelnen Akteure zugewiesen werden, und durch die Regeln für die Interaktion der verschiedenen Rollen....

Das Geschehen auf den Finanzmärkten hängt vom individuellen Verhalten ab, wird aber auch wesentlich bestimmt durch die Ausgestaltung des Finanzsystems, das heisst durch die Rollen, die den einzelnen Akteure zugewiesen werden, und durch die Regeln für die Interaktion der verschiedenen Rollen....

This paper proposes that the global financial and economic crisis has a single cause underlying all other causes. The single cause is attributed to the economic paradigm which drives individual behaviour, business, government and education. We define the economic paradigm and explain its power...

We develop a general equilibrium model of banks' capital structure, featuring heterogeneous portfolio risk and an imperfectly elastic supply of bank equity stemming from financial market segmentation. In our model, equity is costly and serves as a buffer against insolvency. Banks are ex-ante...

This paper presents and analyzes a simple banking model in which banks have access to international capital markets and domestic asset markets. The model generates two types of equilibria: a no-default equilibrium and a mixed equilibrium. In the no-default equilibrium, all banks are symmetric...

We consider a gradient boosting decision trees (GBDT) approach to predict large S&P 500 price drops from a set of 150 technical, fundamental and macroeconomic features. We report an improved accuracy of GBDT over other machine learning (ML) methods on the S&P 500 futures prices. We show that...

The possibility of default limits available liquidity. If the potential default draws nearer, a liquidity crisis may ensue, causing a crash in asset prices, even if the probability of default barely changes, and even if no defaults subsequently materialize. Introducing default and limited...