The protracted recession in the euro area will continue to be a drag on the economic growth of most CESEE countries in 2013. By and large, those countries are small open economies held hostage to the excessive fiscal austerity pursued in the euro area and the sluggish progress on the part of its...

Crises on external sovereign debt are typically defined as defaults. Such a definition accurately captures debt-servicing difficulties in the 1980s, a period of numerous defaults on bank loans. However, defining defaults as debt crises is problematic for the 1990s, when sovereign bond markets...

On 4 March 2011, SUERF – The European Money and Finance Forum and the National Bank of Poland jointly organised a conference on the theme of: "Monetary Policy after the Crisis". Following a call for papers with a large number of submissions, the scientific committee selected 9 papers, which...

The main purpose of this paper is to warn academia and general public about the inevitability of the impending global economic recession. Heuristically paper introduces concept of macroeconomic gambling trap within the wider context of global economic history. Macroeconomic gambling trap is then...

Motivated by the traditional business cycle approach of Burns and Mitchell (1946), we explore cyclical similarities in financial conditions over time in order to improve our understanding of financial cycles. Looking back at 120 years of data, we find that financial cycles exhibit behaviour...

Motivated by the traditional business cycle approach of Burns and Mitchell (1946), we explore cyclical similarities in financial conditions over time in order to improve our understanding of financial cycles. Looking back at 120 years of data, we find that financial cycles exhibit behaviour...

We look back at past episodes of financial stress in Asia with a forward-looking perspective. We put ourselves in the shoes of a contemporary observer with the data at hand and ask what evidence was available on the systematic build-up of vulnerabilities. We reconstruct a graphical narrative of...

We undertake a large-scale empirical examination of systemic risk among 1048 financial institutions in a large sample of 23 emerging markets, broken down into 5 regions. This work extends the large literature on systemic risk in the US, Europe, and other developed countries to emerging markets,...

I develop a framework of the build-up and outbreak of financial crises in an asymmetric information setting. In equilibrium, two distinct economic states arise endogenously: normal times – periods of modest investment, and booms – periods of expansionary investment. Normal times occur when...