indicators (real exchange rates, reserves over M2, imports, short-term debt level...) can be very useful to understand and quantify country risk levels, but are not sufficient. Sudden changes in indicators or combinations of indicators levels can induce a higher risk than what a simple linear...

This paper provides an outlook for the Indian economy in the light of the extraordinary global financial crisis, that started in the US, but which has now transformed into the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. The Indian economy was slowing down even before the onset of global...