Stability in supply of commodities is essential for manufacturing and doing business. This fact is unchangeable despite the passage of time and only the ways of trading of commodities differ. Especially in recent decades, the global economy has changed significantly and one of the major factors...

We study the returns to a simple trend following strategy in commodity futures markets and their drivers. Returns correlate positively to calendar spread liquidity and constraints on intermediation capital. The strategy delivers low annualized excess returns in the period from 1990 to 2004 of...