We present a stochastic simulation forecasting model for stress testing aimed at assessing banks' capital adequacy, financial fragility and probability of default. The paper provides a theoretical presentation of the methodology and the essential features of the forecasting model on which it is...

What kind of models do we need to guide us through the next crisis? If past crises are any indication, we need to explore new approaches. During the Great Financial Crisis, the models that existed at the time were of little value because they focused on firm-level interactions and did not...

Over last two decades, emerging and developing nations have desperately endeavored for efficient banking sectors. In this study, we argue that bank efficiency generates incentives that can impact banks’ capital holdings and the cost of financial intermediation. Analyzing a panel dataset of...