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The principles of behavioral psychology can explain how crashes occur. In particular, the concept of "stimulus generalization" tells us that organisms tend to respond in the same way to similar stimuli. In a crash, or pre-crash, context, several stimuli - including rising prices, above-average...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012928814
We develop a utility and asset pricing theory that features a novel measure of tail risk. Our model determines investor demand for both left and right-tail risk premia from an indifference curve incorporating tolerance for variance and tail risk. We show that the systematic tail risk factors...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014355700
The sharp correction in cryptocurrency markets in May (and June) 2022, especially the dramatic price collapse of ‘stablecoin’ terraUSD (or UST) and its sister token Luna, was covered extensively by the press. We looked at 4,400 reader comments that were posted in response to news and opinion...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014235646
Australian Steve Keen was, in fact, one of just 13 registered economists , out of a global total of around 36,000 (yes that really comes out as 0.04%), who actually anticipated the global financial crisis.Knowing this, I think it’s almost impossible not to want to read his latest book,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014235935
Emotional finance introduces the notion that financial markets may be driven by the co-existence of fully-rational and emotional investors, driven by phantasy. The analysis of emotional finance is informed with reference to a Freudian psychoanalytical framework. In this paper, we add to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013231810
Historical data suggest that the base rate for a severe, single-day stock market crash is relatively low. Surveys of individual and institutional investors, conducted regularly over a 26 year period in the United States, show that they assess the probability to be much higher. We examine the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012996509
The financial press is a conduit for popular narratives that reflect collective memory about historical events. Some collective memories relate to major stock market crashes, and investors may rely on associated narratives, or "crash narratives," to inform current beliefs and choices. Using...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334413
Do prices and returns in the financial markets exhibit observable patterns, or are they truly ‘random walks’, as predicted by the efficient market hypothesis (EMH)? If there are patterns, the natural question becomes, why do we observe such extreme cycles of bubbles (massive over-valuations)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013309463
Using a semi-supervised topic model on 7,000,000 New York Times articles spanning 160 years, we test whether topics of media discourse predict future stock and bond market returns to test rational and behavioral hypotheses about market valuation of disaster risk. Focusing on media discourse...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014287305
Over the past two decades, respondents to the Shiller Investor Confidence Surveys assess the probability of a catastrophic stock market crash to be much higher that the historical frequency of such events. We decompose these crash probabilities into fundamental and subjective components and use...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014576618