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House prices and the distribution of wealth around the great recession
Cóndor, Richard; Moguel, Rodolfo Oviedo - 2023
market using shocks to aggregate income, the distribution of income, credit conditions, and expectations of future housing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014301444
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Dynamics and heterogeneity of subjective stock market expectations
Heiss, Florian; Hurd, Michael D.; Rossmann, Tobias; … - 2019
Between 2004 and 2016, we elicited individuals' subjective expectations of stock market returns in a Dutch internet … differ in how they use past stock market returns to form current stock market expectations. The model allows for rounding in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012033828
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Fictional expectations and the global media in the Greek debt crisis : a topic modeling approach
Daniel, Volker; Neubert, Magnus; Orban, Agnes - 2018
actors' expectations. To identify news coverage about the Greek debt crisis, we apply topic modeling to a newly compiled …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012159621
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The Malaysian property boom and bust cycle : history repeating? : 2018, WEA On Line Conference : The 2008 Economic Crisis Ten Years On in Retrospect, Context and Prospect : Discuss...
Ferlito, Carmelo - 2018
According to Mark Thornton, we could be very close to another major economic crisis. Ten years have passed from the so-called Great Recession and Thornton’s prediction confirms my view according to which business fluctuations are pervasive, and the crisis that emerged in the Western world in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012039718
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Market Dynamics Immediately Before and After Financial Shocks : Quantifying the Omori, Productivity and Bath Laws
Petersen, Alexander Michael - 2010
We study the cascading dynamics immediately before and immediately after 219 market shocks. We define the time of a market shock T_{c} to be the time for which the market volatility V(T_{c}) has a peak that exceeds a predetermined threshold. The cascade of high volatility "aftershocks" triggered...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013136729
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Household debt and crises of confidence
Hintermaier, Thomas; Koeniger, Winfried - In: Quantitative economics : QE ; journal of the … 9 (2018) 3, pp. 1489-1542
This paper develops a notion of consumer confidence within a dynamic competitive equilibrium framework. In any situation where multiple equilibrium prices on next‐period spot markets are equally supported by the state of the economy, confidence is encoded in the subjective probabilities...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011994753
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The tail that wags the economy : beliefs and persistent stagnation
Kozlowski, Julian; Veldkamp, Laura; Venkateswaran, Venky - 2019
The Great Recession was a deep downturn with long-lasting effects on credit, employment and output. While narratives about its causes abound, the persistence of GDP below pre-crisis trends remains puzzling. We propose a simple persistence mechanism that can be quantified and combined with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011997953
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A contribution to the theory of financial fragility and crisis
Bhaduri, Amit - 2010
The paper examines three aspects of a financial crisis of domestic origin. The first section studies the evolution of a debt-financed consumption boom supported by rising asset prices, leading to a credit crunch and fluctuations in the real economy, and, ultimately, to debt deflation. The next...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003974885
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The Tail that Wags the Economy : Belief-Driven Business Cycles and Persistent Stagnation
Kozlowski, Julian - 2015
The "Great Recession" was a deep downturn with long-lasting effects on credit markets, labor markets and output. We explore a simple explanation: This recession has been more persistent than others because it was perceived as an extremely unlikely event before 2007. Observing such an episode led...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013012422
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Learning, Expectations, and the Financial Instability Hypothesis
Guzman, Martin - 2016
This paper analyzes what assumptions on formation of expectations are consistent with Minsky's Financial Instability … crisis recedes into the past. We show that the hypothesis is consistent with assumptions on formation of expectations that … imply learning from realization of states and inconsistent with the assumption of full information rational expectations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013000947