In this paper, we develop a novel, intuitive and objective measure of time-varying parameter uncertainty (PU) based on a simple statistical test. Investors who are averse to parameter uncertainty will react to elevated levels of PU by withdrawing from the market and causing prices to fall, a...

When a stock market crash is defined as the period from an index's prior peak until its recovery, crashes demonstrate empirical regularities in their scale and timing. For instance, measures of the duration, maximum decline, and lost value of crashes are very highly correlated. These...

This paper proposes a risk-based explanation of the momentum anomaly on equity markets. Regressing the momentum strategy return on the return of a self-financing portfolio going long (short) in stocks with high (low) crash sensitivity in the USA from 1963 to 2012 reduces the momentum effect from...

We merge the literature on downside return risk and liquidity risk and introduce the concept of extreme downside liquidity (EDL) risks. The cross-section of stock returns reflects a premium if a stock's return (liquidity) is lowest at the same time when the market liquidity (return) is lowest....

We investigate whether non-GAAP earnings disclosures increase stock price crash risk. Consistent with the notion that non-GAAP reporting allows managers to downplay reported bad news in GAAP earnings and re-direct investors' attention to the more positive aspects of performance, our empirical...

Using U.S. quarterly data from 1960, the paper studies the interaction between bank stock returns and aggregate credit fluctuations on a set of economic dimensions. First, I investigate the source of "Neglected Crash Risk" in U.S. bank returns using a new deviation measure of aggregate loans per...

We construct a momentum factor that identifies cross-sectional winners and losers based on a weighting scheme that incorporates all the price data, over the entire lookback period, as opposed to only the first and last price points of the window. The weighting scheme is derived from the...

The proper forecasting of listed companies' earnings is crucial for their appropriate pricing. This paper compares forecast errors of different univariate time-series models applied for the earnings per share (EPS) data for Polish companies from the period between the last financial crisis of...

This paper investigates the impact on the risk of a crash in the stock price (SPCR) of a hometown connection between a firm's chief executive officer (CEO) and suppliers. Using manually collected data on CEOs' hometown connections among Chinese A-share companies (A-shares, or RMB common shares,...

In this study, we apply a rolling window approach to wavelet-filtered (denoised) S&P500 returns (2000–2020) to obtain time varying Hurst exponents. We analyse the dynamics of the Hurst exponents by applying statistical tests (e.g., for stationarity, Gaussianity and self-similarity), a...