Currency and financial turmoils in international capital markets have been the focus of an extensive theoretical research which started around 30 years ago. This paper provides a synthetic overview of this theoretical modeling. We analyze the basic analytical framework corresponding to the...

This is the article we had prepared around 1-2 weeks ago (data sample starts in October 2014 and ends on 4th of March 2020). But then coronavirus hit our country (Slovak Republic), and we were doing a lot of crisis management tasks and therefore were not able to publish it on time. Now, after...

We present a dynamic Rational Expectations (RE) bubble model of prices with the intention to evaluate it on optimal investment strategies applied to Bitcoin. Our bubble model is defined as a geometric Brownian motion combined with separate crash (and rally) discrete jump distributions associated...

This paper develops an analytical framework to explain how a liquidity shock or a shock to the aggregate haircut on collateralized assets amplifies financial crisis in a carry trade recipient country. The model allows roles for shocks to the size of a haircut, strategic behaviour across currency...

The main objective of this paper is to investigate the diversification role of currency momentum for carry trade crashes during the turbulent periods surrounding the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis and the 2007-2008 global financial crisis. The motivation is to use an important tendency of...

The paper investigates firms' willingness to match the currency composition of their assets and liabilities and their incentives to deviate from perfect matching. Using detailed information at the loan contract level for the Hungarian non-financial corporate sector, the paper provides strong...

Global risk maps are unified databases that provide risk exposure data to supervisors and the broader financial market community worldwide. We think of them as giant matrices that track the bilateral (firm-level) exposures of banks, non-bank financial institutions and other relevant market...

We develop a parsimonious model of bubbles based on the assumption of imprecisely known market depth. In a speculative bubble, traders drive the price above its fundamental value in a dynamic way, driven by rational expectations about future price developments. At a previously unknown date, the...

We introduce the Speculative Influence Network (SIN) to decipher the causal relationships between sectors (and/or firms) during financial bubbles. The SIN is constructed in two steps. First, we develop a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) of regime-switching between a normal market phase represented by a...