should not. A risk premia story might justify the high returns to the carry trades. In this paper we study the relationship … risk factors. Asset pricing theory applies to the currency market: those currencies that have larger loading on risk …, especially crash risk, offer a larger mean return in compensation. Especially, we show that crash risk as measured by quantile …

than out-of-the-money calls, suggesting a large crash risk of those currencies. To evaluate crash risk precisely, we …, forward, and option data, we obtain a real-time index of the compensation for global disaster risk exposure. We find that … disaster risk accounts for more than a third of the carry trade risk premium in advanced countries over the period examined …

-specific risk factors and use the joint conditional distribution of these components to obtain forecasts of future carry trade … competing models. We show that the forecasting gains translate into economically and statistically significant (risk …