The performance of analysts’ forecasts has attracted increasing attention in recent years. However, as yet, no empirical study has investigated the nexus between the analyst forecast dispersion (AFD) and excess returns surrounding stock market crashes in any depth. This paper attempts to fill...

In this study, we examine the predictability of firm-specific stock price crashes using modern machine learning techniques and develop a crash prediction model that utilizes both financial ratios and textual data from the Management Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) of 10-K files. We show that...

In this study, we apply a rolling window approach to wavelet-filtered (denoised) S&P500 returns (2000–2020) to obtain time varying Hurst exponents. We analyse the dynamics of the Hurst exponents by applying statistical tests (e.g., for stationarity, Gaussianity and self-similarity), a...

The persistence in time of the calendar anomalies is one of the most disputed subjects from the financial literature. Quite often, the passing from quiet to turbulent periods of time provokes radical changes in the investors' behaviors which affect the stock markets seasonality. In this paper we...

This paper examines the impact of loan loss provisions (LLPs) on return predictability during 1994-2017. We find that on average, LLPs are negatively associated with one year ahead stock returns. This effect is particularly significant during the global financial crisis but much weaker during...

This paper examines the relation between firm-level implied volatility skew and the likelihood of extreme negative events, or crash risk. I show that volatility skew identifies which firms are likely to experience crashes, but only in short-window earnings announcement periods. The predictive...

Using search volume data on crisis-related queries from Google Trends, we estimate three different measures of market-level and individual crisis sentiment. We find that the stock performance of international banks during the period Q1 2004 to Q4 2012 was significantly driven by investors'...

We extend Jin and Myers’ (2006) model to derive the relation between stock price crash risk and operating leverage (i.e., the fraction of fixed costs in total costs). The model predicts that (i) firms’ operating leverage decreases as stock price crash risk increases, and (ii) the negative...

Does growth lead to stock price crashes? In this study, we find that total asset growth positively relates to future crash risk and the relationship is robust for various asset, liability, and equity components of the balance sheet. Consistent with the managerial empire-building incentive,...

We investigate whether non-GAAP earnings disclosures increase stock price crash risk. Consistent with the notion that non-GAAP reporting allows managers to downplay reported bad news in GAAP earnings and re-direct investors' attention to the more positive aspects of performance, our empirical...