The performance of analysts’ forecasts has attracted increasing attention in recent years. However, as yet, no empirical study has investigated the nexus between the analyst forecast dispersion (AFD) and excess returns surrounding stock market crashes in any depth. This paper attempts to fill...

In this study, we examine the predictability of firm-specific stock price crashes using modern machine learning techniques and develop a crash prediction model that utilizes both financial ratios and textual data from the Management Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) of 10-K files. We show that...

In this study, we apply a rolling window approach to wavelet-filtered (denoised) S&P500 returns (2000–2020) to obtain time varying Hurst exponents. We analyse the dynamics of the Hurst exponents by applying statistical tests (e.g., for stationarity, Gaussianity and self-similarity), a...

We investigate the pricing of systematic tail risk measured by tail beta in the Chinese equity market. Using an array of tests, we examine the performance of more than 3,300 stocks for the years 1999 through 2018. Contrary to evidence from developed markets, we demonstrate a strong negative...

Exploiting novel data from Guba forum in China, we analyze the return extrapolation in the cross-section comprehensively and relate it to return predictability and market quality. We find that investors extrapolate from past returns to form their beliefs with exponentially decaying weight and...

This paper examines the impact of loan loss provisions (LLPs) on return predictability during 1994-2017. We find that on average, LLPs are negatively associated with one year ahead stock returns. This effect is particularly significant during the global financial crisis but much weaker during...

This paper investigates how the disclosure tone of earnings conference calls predicts future stock price crash risk. Using U.S. public firm earnings conference call transcripts from 2010 to 2015, we find that firms exhibiting more pessimistic tone during the current year-end call experience...

Equity trading volume is increasingly moving to dark venues from lit exchanges. Theory provides opposing predictions about the effect of dark trading on stock price crash risk. The price efficiency theory predicts a negative relation while the liquidity externality theory predicts a positive...

Using search volume data on crisis-related queries from Google Trends, we estimate three different measures of market-level and individual crisis sentiment. We find that the stock performance of international banks during the period Q1 2004 to Q4 2012 was significantly driven by investors'...

This paper explores the ability of financial analysts to gauge the risk taken by banks and investigates the impact of the recent financial crisis. Using a sample of 36,343 analyst forecasts issued for 411 European banks over 2003-2009 we find that analyst forecasts are influenced by risk, the...