This paper proposes Spillover Persistence as a measure for financial fragility. The volatility paradox predicts that fragility builds up when volatility is low, which challenges existing measures. Spillover Persistence tackles this challenge by exploring a novel dimension of systemic risk: loss...

The paper sheds light on financial contagion within the Euro Area and Asia, and contagion from the Euro Area to Asia during two recent crises. Using both original constant threshold and Value-at-Risk to estimate extreme negative returns, the empirical findings indicate the existence of contagion...

Common systemic risk measures focus on the instantaneous occurrence of triggering and systemic events. However, systemic events may also occur with a time-lag to the triggering event. To study this contagion period and the resulting persistence of institutions' systemic risk we develop and...

This paper investigates and tests the role of regional exposures in financial contagion from advanced to emerging market economies through the global banking network using data on cross-border bilateral bank claims and liability positions. We first examine whether an economy can become more...

The purpose of this study is to investigate whether contagion actually occurred during three well-known financial crises in 1990s and 2000s: Mexican “Tequila” crisis in 1994, Asian “flu” crisis in 1997 and US subprime crisis in 2007. We apply dynamic conditional correlation models...

This paper examines the time-varying conditional correlations of daily European equity market returns during the Irish sovereign debt crisis. A dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) multivariate GARCH model is used to estimate to what extent the collapse of Irish equity markets and subsequent...

In our network analysis of 40 developed, emerging and frontier stock markets during 2006-2014, we describe and model volatility spillovers during global financial crisis and tranquil periods. The resulting market interconnectedness is depicted by fitting a spatial model incorporating several...

This paper investigates and tests the role of regional exposures in financial contagion from advanced to emerging market economies through the global banking network using data on cross-border bilateral bank claims and liability positions. We first examine whether an economy can become more...

Can central banks defuse rising stability risks in financial booms by leaning against the wind with higher interest rates? This paper studies the state-dependent effects of monetary policy on financial stability. Based on the near-universe of advanced economy financial cycles since the 19th...