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We study state dependence in the impact of monetary policy shocks over the leverage cycle for a panel of 10 euro area countries. We use a Bayesian Threshold Panel SVAR with regime classifications based on credit and house prices cycles. We find that monetary policy shocks trigger a smaller...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012241107
We estimate the marginal effects of identified components of global liquidity on 43 real economies. To this end, we employ global public and private credit components of Herwartz, Ochsner, and Rohloff (2021) in factor-augmented vector-autoregressions to trace credit shocks through the real...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012543597
In this paper we assess the merits of financial condition indices constructed using simple averages versus a more sophisticated alternative that uses factor models with time varying parameters. Our analysis is based on data for 18 advanced and emerging economies at a monthly frequency covering...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012653846
In this paper we assess the merits of financial condition indices constructed using simple averages versus a more sophisticated alternative that uses factor models with time varying parameters. Our analysis is based on data for 18 advanced and emerging economies at a monthly frequency covering...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012259350
We study the link between the global financial cycle and macroeconomic tail risks using quantile vector autoregressions. Contractionary shocks to financial conditions and monetary policy in the United States cause elevated downside risks to growth around the world. By tightening financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013459721
Financial shocks generate a protracted and quantitatively important effect on real economic activity and financial markets only if the shocks are both negative and large. Otherwise, their role is quite modest. Financial shocks have become more important for economic fluctuations after the 2000...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013207315
The relatively infrequent nature of major credit distress events makes a historical approach particularly useful. Using a combination of historical narrative and econometric techniques, we identify major periods of credit distress from 1875 to 2007, examine the extent to which credit distress...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013144427
Financial shocks represent a major driver of fluctuations in tail risk, defined as the 5th percentile of the forecast distributions of output and inflation. Since the variance and the asymmetry of the forecast distributions are largely driven by the left tail, financial shocks turn out to play a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014232607
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010477723
This paper provides a quick review of the causes of the Global Financial Crisis that began in 2007. There were many contributing factors, but among the most important were rising inequality and stagnant incomes for most American workers, growing private sector debt in the United States and many...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013108272