In this paper, we study the effectiveness of carry trade strategies during and after the financial crisis using a flexible approach to modeling currency returns. We decompose the currency returns into multiplicative sign and absolute return components, which exhibit much greater predictability...

The aim of this article is to examine how the dynamics of correlations between two emerging countries (Brazil and Mexico) and the US evolved from January 2003 to December 2013. The main contribution of this study is to explore whether the plunging stock market in the US, in the aftermath of...

This paper investigates the role of volatility risk on stock return predictability specified on two global financial crises: the dot-com bubble and recent financial crisis. Using a broad sample of stock options traded at the American Stock Exchange and the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE)...

We provide a historical perspective focusing on Ziemba's experiences and research on the bond-stock earnings yield differential model (BSEYD) starting from when he first used it in Japan in 1988 through to the present in 2014. The model has called many but not all crashes. Those called have high...

In this paper, we study the effectiveness of carry trade strategies during and after the financial crisis using a flexible approach to modeling currency returns. We decompose the currency returns into multiplicative sign and absolute return components, which exhibit much greater predictability...

Over the last two decades, a number of financial disasters have occurred due to failure in risk management procedures. If some, as the Asian financial crisis, had a very much more muted global impact (even though they sent shock waves through global financial markets, the main damage were fairly...

The paper investigates the determinants of the US$/€ exchange rate since its introduction in 1999, with a special focus on the recent subprime mortgage and sovereign debt financial crises. The econometric model is grounded on the asset pricing theory of exchange rate determination, which...

We test for price bubbles in fourteen national REIT markets and examine the extent of convergence toward a common trend between the REITs of these countries. Our methodology consists of the recently developed test of Phillips, Shi and Yu (2012) for mildly explosive processes, and the Phillips...

The proper forecasting of listed companies' earnings is crucial for their appropriate pricing. This paper compares forecast errors of different univariate time-series models applied for the earnings per share (EPS) data for Polish companies from the period between the last financial crisis of...

We present a detailed bubble analysis of the Bitcoin to US Dollar price dynamics from January 2012 to February 2018. We introduce a robust automatic peak detection method that classifies price time series into periods of uninterrupted market growth (drawups) and regimes of uninterrupted market...