Using a generalized vector autoregressive framework in which forecast-error variance decompositions are invariant to variable ordering, we propose measures of both total and directional volatility spillovers. We use our methods to characterize daily volatility spillovers across U.S. stock, bond,...

We characterize asset return linkages during periods of stress by an extremal dependence measure. Contrary to correlation analysis, this nonparametric measure is not predisposed toward the normal distribution and can allow for nonlinear relationships. Our estimates for the G-5 countries suggest...

In pricing real estate with indifference pricing approach, market incompleteness is shown to significantly alter the conventional pricing relationships between real estate and financial asset. Specifically, we focus on the pricing implication of market comovement because comovement tends to be...

In pricing real estate with indifference pricing approach, market incompleteness significantly distorts the conventional pricing relationships between real estate and financial asset. In this paper, we focus on the pricing implication of market comovement because comovement tends to be stronger...

We consider a gradient boosting decision trees (GBDT) approach to predict large S&P 500 price drops from a set of 150 technical, fundamental and macroeconomic features. We report an improved accuracy of GBDT over other machine learning (ML) methods on the S&P 500 futures prices. We show that...

The performance of analysts’ forecasts has attracted increasing attention in recent years. However, as yet, no empirical study has investigated the nexus between the analyst forecast dispersion (AFD) and excess returns surrounding stock market crashes in any depth. This paper attempts to fill...

This thesis investigates value and momentum effects in the U.S. market after the recent financial crisis as well as for other periods. Many researchers contend that market anomalies exist in the two popular forms, value and momentum effects, and have studied where abnormal profits arise. Not...

Previous studies rarely discuss the effect of margin trading on future stock price crash risk, though margin trading is often blamed for destabilizing stock market. We propose three possible mechanisms through which margin trading may affect crash risk. Our empirical results show that neither...

In this paper, we develop a novel, intuitive and objective measure of time-varying parameter uncertainty (PU) based on a simple statistical test. Investors who are averse to parameter uncertainty will react to elevated levels of PU by withdrawing from the market and causing prices to fall, a...