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We assess the effects of financial shocks on inflation, and to what extent financial shocks can account for the … shocks through sign restrictions. Our main finding is that expansionary financial shocks temporarily lower inflation. This … during the latest financial crisis. We then explore the transmission channels of financial shocks relevant for inflation, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011546785
We use high-frequency intraday interest rate data to measure euro area monetary policy shocks on the days of ECB interest rate announcements between 2002 and 2013. In line with Gürkaynak et al. (2005), we look at monetary policy shocks along two time dimensions: one related to the current level...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013045549
The 2008 financial crisis has shown that financial busts can influence the real economy. However, there is less evidence to suggest that the same holds for financial booms. Using a Markov-Switching vector autoregressive model and euro area data, I show that financial booms tend to be less...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011617592
shocks and study their effects on financial variables and macro variables. The first shock resembles a conventional monetary … policy shock, and the second resembles an unconventional monetary shock. The third shock leads to an increase in interest … and uncertainty decrease, and the U.S. dollar depreciates. Therefore, this third shock combines all the characteristics of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014560738
We quantify spillovers of inflation expectations between the United States (US) and Euro Area (EA) based on break …-even inflation (BEI) rates. In contrast to previous studies, we model US and EA BEI rates jointly in a structural vector … autoregressive (SVAR) model. The SVAR approach allows to identify US and EA specific inflation expectations shocks. By modeling the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010255370
stability. We model the default of a large bank and analyse the resulting contagion effects. This is compared to a common shock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003971540
This paper studies the effects of three financial shocks in the economy: a net-worth shock, an uncertainty or risk … shock, and a credit-spread shock. We argue that only the latter can push the nominal interest rate against its zero lower … bound. Further, a recessionary shock to the net worth or the credit spread generates a positive response for loans, which is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010243420
Monetary policy shocks that convey new macroeconomic information are significant predictors of both the absolute and risk-adjusted returns from value investing. Positive Fed information shocks lead to higher subsequent value returns. Crashes in the returns of value investing are most likely to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013231644
combined with the theory of optimum currency areas. It shows how since the turn of the millennium a too expansionary monetary …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011619626
model averaging in policy design. Interestingly, a simple difference rule with the same coefficients on inflation and output …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010392194