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Benoit Mandelbrot (1924-2010), a pioneering mathematician, created a new awareness of the chaos of nature - its randomness, irregular shapes, sharp edges, corners, and gaps. He developed the theory of fractals to describe these phenomena, and he also applied his concepts to financial markets....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014254749
and statistically significant real-time improvements in forecast accuracy. The preferred MIDAS model reduces the MSPE by … as 82 percent. This MIDAS forecast also is more accurate than a mixed-frequency realtime VAR forecast, but not …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010203447
This study examines the return (price) and volatility spillovers among the money, stock, foreign exchange and bond markets in Euro-area, utilizing the forecast-error variance decomposition framework of a generalized VAR model proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) [Better to give than to receive:...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013100024
In general, the properties of the conditional distribution of multiple period returns do not follow easily from the one-period data generating process. This renders computation of Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall for multiple period returns a non-trivial task. In this paper we consider some...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013155481
Information on the allocation and pricing of over-the-counter (OTC) markets is scarce. Furfine (1999) pioneered an algorithm that provides transaction-level data on the OTC interbank lending market. The veracity of the data identified, however, is not well established. Using permutation methods,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010363591
This paper proposes a methodology for constructing a Financial Conditions Indicator (FCI) based on factor analysis and the approaches of Brave and Butters (2011) and Aramonte et al. (2013). A selected set of variables is used and their information content aggregated into a single index that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011715419
Persistent homology is the workhorse of modern topological data analysis, which in recent years becomes increasingly powerful due to methodological and computing power advances. In this paper, after equipping the reader with the relevant background on persistent homology, we show how this tool...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012859015
This research paper aim to examine the profitability of various kinds of oscillator used in technical analysis on market index of NSE (National Stock Exchange) S&P CNX NIFTY 50 during 2004-2014. We have selected the most commonly used three oscillators i.e., Stochastic oscillator, RSI Oscillator...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013010826
This study examines the return (price) and volatility spillovers among the money, stock, foreign exchange and bond markets of the euro area, utilizing the forecast-error variance decomposition framework of a generalized VAR model proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) [Better to give than to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013403137
Turbulent financial market periods are characterized by low mean returns, high volatility and often by the disappearance of the diversification effect. Therefore, accurate predictions of financial turbulence can significantly improve the risk-reward-ratio of investment strategies and is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014255229