This paper compares different GARCH models in terms of their out-of-sample predictive ability of leveraged loan market volatility. The study investigates whether the asymmetric effects of good and bad news on volatility is present and how distributional assumptions affect the selection of GARCH...

We propose a new class of multivariate volatility models utilizing realized measures of asset volatility and covolatility extracted from high-frequency data. Dimension reduction for estimation of large covariance matrices is achieved by imposing a factor structure with time-varying conditional...

Abreu and Brunnermeier (2003) have argued that bubbles are not suppressed by arbitrageurs because they fail to synchronise on the uncertain beginning of the bubble. We propose an indirect quantitative test of this hypothesis and confront it with the alternative according to which bubbles persist...

We conduct a novel empirical analysis of the role of leverage of financial institutions for the transmission of financial shocks to the macroeconomy. For that purpose, we develop an endogenous regime switching structural vector autoregressive model with time-varying transition probabilities that...

We conduct a novel empirical analysis of the role of leverage of financial institutions for the transmission of financial shocks to the macroeconomy. For that purpose we develop an endogenous regime-switching structural vector autoregressive model with time-varying transition probabilities that...

Utilizing VAR-DCC-MVGARCH model and volatility spillover index, we examine international spillovers and spillbacks between SMICs and the U.S. Results show that SMICs and the U.S. present dynamic and asymmetric volatility spillovers and spillbacks during and beyond financial crisis. The effects...

This chapter provides an overview over the recently developed so called multifractal (MF) approach for modeling and forecasting volatility. We outline the genesis of this approach from similar models of turbulent flows in statistical physics and provide details on different specifications of...

The objective of this paper is to propose an early warning system that can predict the likelihood of the occurrence of financial stress events within a given period of time. To achieve this goal, the signal extraction approach proposed by Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart (1998) is used to monitor...

Yes, they can. I propose a new method to detect credit booms and busts from multivariate systems -- monetary Bayesian vector autoregressions. When observed credit is systematically higher than credit forecasts justified by real economic activity variables, a positive credit gap emerges. The...

Given the rapidly evolving nature of financial globalization, this paper models and predicts financial integration in a changing world. By decomposing integration into global risk, local risk and estimation risk, we argue that greater integration is mainly driven by global factors, not...