Models for assessing the probability of default play an important role in the risk management systems of commercial banks, as they allow assessing the creditworthiness of various counterparties and transactions. Many Russian banks are trying to switch to an advanced approach based on internal...

This paper examines whether the presence of parameter instabilities in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models affects their forecasting performance. We apply this analysis to medium-scale DSGE models with and without financial frictions for the US economy. Over the forecast period...

This paper contributes to the literature on early warning indicators by applying a Bayesian model averaging approach. Our analysis, based on Austrian data, is carried out in two steps: First, we construct a quarterly financial stress index (AFSI) quantifying the level of stress in the Austrian...