I present evidence of systematically heterogeneous expectations, a violation of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis. I demonstrate that the expectations of different gender and wealth cohorts have different relative abilities to predict inflation, interest rates, unemployment, income, stock...

We estimate the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the USA from 1997 to 2019 using expected inflation from financial instruments. We use a spliced series comprised of the TIPS spread and inflation swaps. Empirical tests find higher coefficients on backward-looking inflation than forward-looking,...

The question of what is the economic environment that is most likely to anticipate a recession is still open, as the literature has emphasized either the importance of deteriorating financial conditions and that of worsening macroeconomic indicators. Using a probit forecasting model, we show...

According to studies on the impossible trinity, under conditions of high financial integration, the domestic interest rate is closely linked to the foreign one if the possibility of maneuvering interest rates is absent in this transaction. The Fisher effect is brought into this escapade because...

This paper studies optimal monetary policy in a model with credit frictions and money demand. We show that augmenting a standard New-Keynesian model with money demand and financial frictions generates a mechanism that, in equilibrium, gives rise to optimal negative nominal interest rates. In...

Forward-looking monetary policy communication has become a key element of flexible inflation-targeting regimes across advanced and emerging market economies. The Reserve Bank of India’s implementation of a flexible inflation targeting framework since 2016 has been supported by a broad set of...

This research paper focuses on investigating the macroeconomic determinants of capital market performance in South Asia, using the Arbitrage Pricing Theory and multiple panel regression for the period of 2010-2019.While previous studies have explored the impact of macroeconomic variables on the...

Part of the present inflation is caused by the breakdown of globalization, in particular supply chains, part is caused by the Corona Pandemic, in particular lockdowns, part is caused by the Ukrainian War, part is caused by European sanctions, and part - and not the smallest one - is caused by...

Background: Hedging against inflation assumes instruments such as gold, stocks, fixed income securities, and real estate. There still exists a lack of appropriate strategy to hedge against inflation. Objectives: This paper examines the possibilities for hedging against inflation in Croatia...