How can fire sales for financial assets happen when the economy contains well capitalized, but non-specialist investors? Our explanation combines rational expectations equilibrium and "lemons" models. When specialist (informed) market participants are liquidity-constrained, prices become less...

During currency crises, large traders once simultaneously short the asset markets and currency market. We study the large trader's information manipulation in crises by introducing a large trader in an asset market and a currency-attack coordination game with imperfect information. The asset...

We study how dynamic research affects information acquisition in financial markets. In our strategic trading model, the trader performs costly research to generate private information but does not always succeed. Optimal research activity responds to market conditions and generates novel...

This paper shows that changes in market participants' fear of rare events implied by crude oil options contribute to oil price volatility and oil return predictability. Using 25 years of historical data, we document economically large tail risk premia that vary substantially over time and...

News sentiment has been empirically observed to have impact on financial market. However, finding a clear predictor of market returns using news sentiment remains a challenging task. This study investigates the relationship between news sentiment and cumulative market returns and volatility. We...

In dynamic financial markets the stochastic supply of risky assets has a significant informational role. Contrary to static models, where it acts as “noise,” in dynamic markets stochastic supply contains information about risk premiums. Acquiring private dividend information helps investors...

We investigate how the interaction between product market competition and firm-level corporate governance enhances the accuracy of analysts' forecasts and reduces the forecasts' deviation. Using a sample of Brazilian public firms covered by analysts, we find that competitive industries provide...

As expectations are driven by information, its selection is central in explaining common knowledge building and unraveling in financial markets. This paper addresses this information selection problem by proposing imitation as a key mechanism to explain opinion dynamics. Behavioral and cognitive...

Models with small numbers of agents have recently been simplified for direct empirical estimation. Parameters are estimated at the macro level to get a best fit to the data. However, little analysis is done at the micro level to examine the choices made by agents for forecasting rules. This...

This paper develops a securities market model in which participants' beliefs diverge and prices are monotonic in beliefs. Relative to rational expectations (i.e., correct and unanimous beliefs), overconfidence among uninformed traders about the precision of experts' information leads to...