We introduce two online backtest overfitting tools: BODT simulates the overfitting of seasonal strategies (typical of technical analysis), and TMST simulates the overfitting of econometric strategies (typical of academic journals). We show that econometric methods lend themselves to extreme...

The False Strategy theorem tells us that the optimal outcome of an unknown number of historical simulations is right-unbounded — with enough trials, there is no Sharpe ratio sufficiently enough to reject the hypothesis that a strategy is false. Given the ease with which one can use a computer...

FinTech is a new term combining finance and technology. The term did not exist until the end of 2014. Although there is agreement over what finance is, there is no agreed upon definition of technology. It changes with time. American sociologist Read Bain wrote in 1937 that technology includes...

Present paper shows that credit regarding job creation is ineffective in the 2000s, while it was effective in 1980s and 1990s. This paper attempts to support the view of (Bouis et al., 2013), that recently growth is sluggish, in spite of the massive monetary stimulus. Further, it will support...

In this paper is shown that financial deepening is good for job creation up to a critical point, beyond which unemployment starts rising. The reason can be the heavy debt the private sector is bearing, so that business sector becomes unable to pay off debts, and thus companies go bankrupt...

In 2014, the domestic money market saw the onset of a new wave of crisis, manifesting itself in capital outflow, a world's record plunge of the Russian stock indices, the ruble's devaluation, the surge in the key interest rate and interest rates in the interbank lending market. It is external...

We analyze the main forces affecting financial system pro-cyclicality (the fact that developments in the financial sector can amplify business cycle fluctuations). We first review some major structural developments in financial markets that may influence pro-cyclicality and that have been...

The central problem for financial regulation is reducing systemic risk. Systemic risk is the risk that the failure of one significant institution can cause or significantly contribute to the failure of other significant institutions. This paper addresses the five most important policies for...

Recent developments in the monetary sphere of Liberia including the “dearth of local currency banknotes” have triggered escalating public conversations about the financial system of Liberia and perceived risks and opportunities. Many pundits from within and outside Liberia have yielded to...

Central counterparty (CCP) initial margin models are procyclical by nature, and CCPs use antiprocyclicality (APC) tools to mitigate this. However, despite the widespread use of such tools, margin models of CCPs around the world reacted severely to the heightened volatility during the March 2020...