We analyze the relation between volatility and speculative activities in the crude oil futures market and provide short-term forecasts accordingly. By incorporating trading volume and opening interest (speculative ratio) into the volatility dynamics, we document the subtle interaction between...

This paper develops a securities market model in which participants' beliefs diverge and prices are monotonic in beliefs. Relative to rational expectations (i.e., correct and unanimous beliefs), overconfidence among uninformed traders about the precision of experts' information leads to...

This paper contributes to the debate on commodity financialization by extending tests of herd behavior to the commodity futures markets. Utilizing a regime-switching model, we test the presence of herd behavior in a number of commodity sectors; including energy, metals, grains, and livestock;...