We measure investors' short- and long-term stock-return expectations using both options and survey data. These expectations at different horizons reveal what investors think their own short-term expectations will be in the future, or forward return expectations. While contemporaneous short-term...

Which are the main frictions and driving forces of business cycle dynamics in a small open economy? To answer this question we extend what is becoming the standard new Keynesian model in three dimensions. First, we incorporate frictions in the financing of the capital stock. Second, we model...

How important are financial and labor market frictions for the business cycle dynamics of a small open economy? What are the quantitative effects of increased financial risk on output and inflation? What drives the variation in the intensive and extensive margin of labor supply? What are the...

The current financial crisis has made it abundantly clear that business cycle modeling can no longer abstract from financial factors. It is also clear that the current standard approach of modeling labor markets without explicit unemployment has its limitations. We extend what is becoming the...

A comparative analysis of the existing model of financial market regulation and the model put forth by the Bank of Russia within the framework of the Draft Federal Law ‘On Self-Regulating Organizations in the Field of Financial Markets' indicates that the Bank of Russia is creating a new...

NWW Concept (North & all, 2009) determines the necessary threshold conditions for the transition from Limited Access Orders (LAO) to Open Access Orders (OAO). In this article, I offer a sufficient criterion for such a transition. What are the conditions under which a rent-seeking behavior...

Using positive semidefinite supOU (superposition of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type) processes to describe the volatility, we introduce a multivariate stochastic volatility model for financial data which is capable of modelling long range dependence effects. The finiteness of moments and the second...

Behavioral finance presented in Finance for Normal People is a second generation behavioral finance. The first generation, starting in the early 1980s, largely accepted standard finance's notion of people's wants as “rational” wants – restricted to the utilitarian benefits of high returns...

We introduce two online backtest overfitting tools: BODT simulates the overfitting of seasonal strategies (typical of technical analysis), and TMST simulates the overfitting of econometric strategies (typical of academic journals). We show that econometric methods lend themselves to extreme...

The False Strategy theorem tells us that the optimal outcome of an unknown number of historical simulations is right-unbounded — with enough trials, there is no Sharpe ratio sufficiently enough to reject the hypothesis that a strategy is false. Given the ease with which one can use a computer...