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This paper traces the origin and development of the complex systems theory over the course of history, up to its latest … advancement in the study of stock market crashes. The trail of the theory's fuzzy evolution is expansive that covers the ground of … complex systems theory from another seemingly overlapping theory of the chaos systems. The paper recounts how researchers from …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012966774
We introduce a “bad environment-good environment” (BEGE) technology for consumption growth in a consumption-based asset pricing model with external habit formation. The model generates realistic non-Gaussian features of consumption growth and fits standard salient features of asset prices...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012904045
The finance industry has grown, financial markets have become more liquid, information technology has been revolutionized. But have financial market prices become more informative? We derive a welfare-based measure of price informativeness: the predicted variation of future cash flows from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012974835
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We provide a simple and intuitive measure of interdependence of asset returns and/or volatilities. In particular, we formulate and examine precise and separate measures of return spillovers and volatility spillovers. Our framework facilitates study of both non-crisis and crisis episodes,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003831195
Within a two step GARCH framework we estimate the time-varying spillover effects from European and US return innovations to 10 economic sectors within the euro area, the United States, and the United Kingdom. We use daily data from January 1988 - March 2002. At the beginning of our sample...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009767119
This paper studies the return and volatility spillovers between the stock market, the Exchange Fund Notes market and the Hong Kong dollar forward exchange market. Based on a bivariate GARCH model that specifies exogenous influences in the conditional mean and variance equations, this study...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014211097
Following recent advances in the non-parametric realized volatility approach, we separately measure the discontinuous jump part of the quadratic variation process for individual stocks and incorporate it into heterogeneous autoregressive volatility models. We analyze the distributional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013004411
We apply the concept of carry, which has been studied almost exclusively in currency markets, to any asset. A security's expected return is decomposed into its “carry” – an ex-ante and model-free characteristic – and its expected price appreciation. Carry predicts returns...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013007354