Stage Three of the European Monetary Union (EMU) will start on January 1, 1999. The new currency area, for which the name "Euroland" has been coined, will comprise 11 countries: Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain. The...

The decision on EMU strongly affects the course of monetary and fiscal policies in 1997 and especially in 1998. We assume that the monetary union will start in January 1, 1999 with a sizable number of participating countries. Once the decision on the members is made in the spring of 1998, any...

The cyclical situation at the beginning of the European Monetary Union (EMU) is favorable: The upswing in Euroland has firmed, unemployment is going down, and inflation is low. However, economic growth outside the new currency area has weakened significantly during 1998, and fears are mounting...

Since the fall of last year, EMU countries have experienced a slowdown in economic activity triggered by a deceleration of exports. The expansion of internal demand has been more or less intact due to low interest rates and higher terms of trade. Consumer confidence has continued to rise and...

Table of Contents: I. External Challenges 12 1. The Transformation of Central and Eastern Europe 12 a. Trends in Central and Eastern Europe's Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) 12 b. The Impact on Germany 14 c. Political Consequences 14 2. Migration Pressures 16 a. The European Perspective 16 b....

Obwohl der konjunkturelle Aufschwung nun schon sechs Jahre anhält, ist das Defizit im amerikanischen Bundeshaushalt nur wenig zurückgegangen. In der amerikanischen Geschichte hat es kaum eine vergleichbare Phase gegeben, in der die Verschuldung so nachhaltig gestiegen ist. Im internationalen...

The stock market crash of October 1987 was not followed by the widely-feared recession in the world economy. Most forecasts have been revised upward again, and many are even more favorable than before the crash. This is also the case for Western European countries. However, beyond the very short...