This paper analyzes recent macroeconomic developments in the eurozone, particularly in Germany. Several economic indicators are sending signals of a looming German recession. Geopolitical tensions caused by trade disputes between the United States and China, plus the risk of a disorderly Brexit,...

As the COVID-19 pandemic has shaped public policies and government finances, it has also influenced the topics that public finance economists are researching. Because the 2020 International Institute of Public Finance (IIPF) Congress featured papers that were submitted prior to the start of the...

This note shows that the Italian Mini BOTs proposed in 2019 bore the potential neither to become Italian legal tender nor to practically increase Italian government debt, but to practically cause a mere reduction in taxation and thence in government spending or transfers. Since the Eurozone...

We study the causal effects of austerity measures in the form of local fiscal rules on political participation and party preferences. We exploit an Italian reform - namely, the 2013 imposition of deficit targets in municipalities with fewer than 5,000 residents - to show that local fiscal rules...

This paper estimates the causal effect of fiscal rules on fiscal balances in a panel of 142 countries over the period 1985-2015. Our instrumental variable strategy exploits the geographical diffusion of fiscal rules across countries. The intuition is that reforms in neighboring countries may...

This paper explores the political economy of fiscal adjustment. It begins with an examination of the evidence for, and sources of, ‘deficit bias', including political and governance factors, public attitudes, the role of financial markets and imprecision about which debt targets should be...

In recent years, a lot of rules concerning government expenditures as well as tax revenues were changed in Germany. Government expenditures in relation to GDP were reduced, income tax rates were lowered and the budget deficit declined. The structure of government expenditures changed in favor of...

We analyze fiscal consolidations using a New Keynesian model where agents have heterogeneous expectations and are uncertain about the composition of consolidations. We look at spending-based and tax-based consolidations and analyze their effects separately. We find that the effects of...

The new fiscal rule recently proposed in Korea is unique as it imposes a ceiling on a combination of the debt-to-GDP and deficit-to-GDP ratios rather than separate ceilings on each. This paper attempts to assess empirically the degree of adjustment needed to satisfy the new fiscal rule as well...

The purpose of this note is to compare the characteristics of the actual Stability and Growth Pact with that of a European "modified golden rule." The latter would consist in achieving in each EU country a cyclically-adjusted net-of-public-investment balance. The benchmark for comparison is the...