The cyclical situation at the beginning of the European Monetary Union (EMU) is favorable: The upswing in Euroland has firmed, unemployment is going down, and inflation is low. However, economic growth outside the new currency area has weakened significantly during 1998, and fears are mounting...

Since the fall of last year, EMU countries have experienced a slowdown in economic activity triggered by a deceleration of exports. The expansion of internal demand has been more or less intact due to low interest rates and higher terms of trade. Consumer confidence has continued to rise and...