This paper provides a detailed examination of a new set of fiscal forecasts for the U.S. assembled by Croushore and van Norden (2017) from FOMC briefing books. The data are of particular interest because (1) they afford a look at fiscal forecasts over six complete business cycles and several...

According to the so-called ‘fiscal theory of the price level' (FTPL), under a non-Ricardian regime the price level has to adjust to fulfil the government's budget constraint. In contrast, under a Ricardian regime, government balances adjust in order to preserve government solvency. We...