representative of the US population and a sample of more than 1,000 experts, we measure beliefs about how the unemployment rate and … the inflation rate respond to four different hypothetical exogenous shocks: a monetary policy shock, a government spending … shock, an income tax shock, and an oil price shock. While expert predictions are quantitatively close to benchmarks from …

measure beliefs about the effects of macroeconomic shocks on unemployment and inflation, providing respondents with identical …,500 US households and 1,500 experts, beliefs are widely dispersed, even about the directional effects of shocks, and there are … large differences in average beliefs between households and experts. Part of this disagreement seems to arise from selective …

This paper analyzes the impact of a tax policy shock on the macroeconomics of the housing market. I develop a … after a negative demand shock there is a composition effect on price due to an upward distortion of match surplus by a tax … the housing market after a negative demand shock. I use the model to analyze the impact of the Federal Home Buyer Tax …