This paper tests whether poorly capitalized banks with troubled loan books are more likely to miss their bailout dividends. Privately held banks with weaker core capital ratios, more charged off loans, more allowances for loan losses, and more non-performing loans are more likely to miss their...

We propose a methodology for measuring the market-implied capital of banks by subtracting from the market value of equity (market capitalization) a credit-spread-based correction for the value of shareholders' default option. We show that without such a correction, the estimated impact of a...

Since the 2008 Financial Crisis, stress tests based on extreme-yet-plausible scenarios have become a preferred method of assessing risk for large financial institutions, yet scenario choice has largely been ad-hoc. We propose a principled methodology to choose scenarios by minimizing the...