We explain the role of the Phillips Curve at the ECB in the analysis of the economic outlook and the formulation of monetary policy. First, revisiting the structural Phillips Curve, we highlight the challenges in recovering structural parameters from reduced-form estimates and relate the...

Using detailed establishment-level micro data, this paper analyzes the quantitative implications of the missing-growth hypothesis by Aghion, Bergeaud, Boppart, Klenow, and Li (2019) for Germany. This hypothesis states that actual growth rates of real output are systematically understated by...

We propose a novel framework where forward guidance (FG) is endogenously determined. Our model assumes that a monetary authority solves an optimal policy problem under commitment at the zero-lower bound. FG derives from two sources: 1. from commiting to keep interest rates low at the exit of the...