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This paper analyses the dynamic effects of fiscal imbalances in a given EMU member state on the borrowing costs of other countries in the euro area. The estimation of a multivariate, multi-country time series model (specifically a Global VAR, or GVAR) using quarterly data for the EMU period...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013119070
This paper analyses the dynamic effects of fiscal imbalances in a given EMU member state on the borrowing costs of other countries in the euro area. The estimation of a multivariate, multi-country time series model (specifically a Global VAR, or GVAR) using quarterly data for the EMU period...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013112600
I estimate the effect of U.S. government spending and tax shocks on Canada and the U.K. from 1975 to 2014, and on Japan from 1979 to 2014. Spending and tax shocks are identified using sign restrictions on the impulse responses from a vector autoregression (VAR). I find that spillover effects of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012984260
I estimate the effect of U.S. government spending and tax shocks on Canada, Japan, and the U.K. for the period 1974 through 2007. Spending and tax shocks are identified using sign restrictions on the impulse responses from a vector autoregression (VAR). I find that while spillover effects of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011211857
We compute a GVAR to estimate the fiscal spillovers on output, consumption, investment, employment, and income, from … generate positive spillovers on output and employment. Negative cross-country effects on consumption were also found. No … significant spillovers on investment or income were observed following this shock. Greater and more significant spillovers were …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015077839
The Great Recession underlined that policies in some countries can have profound spillovers elsewhere. Sadly, the … solution of simulating large macroeconomic models to measure these spillovers has been found wanting. Typical models generate … lower international correlations of output and financial asset prices than are seen in even pre-crisis data. Imposing higher …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013085976
consolidation shocks via trade flows. Using a measure of exogenous fiscal shocks in export markets, fiscal consolidation spillovers … partner countries, fiscal policies have large spillover effects on output. Spillovers of fiscal consolidations on growth are … medium term. Larger spillovers of fiscal consolidation coincide with stronger shifts in bilateral trade flows in currency …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010230999
consolidation shocks via trade flows. Using a measure of exogenous fiscal shocks in export markets, fiscal consolidation spillovers … partner countries, fiscal policies have large spillover effects on output. Spillovers of fiscal consolidations on growth are … medium term. Larger spillovers of fiscal consolidation coincide with stronger shifts in bilateral trade flows in currency …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013071784
, German fiscal spillovers to the CE4 and more broadly to the rest of the euro area, have increased over time, but are still …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013073772
such output losses might be exacerbated by negative spillovers from other countries. This paper presents some model …-border fiscal spillovers in the euro area. However, once the analysis takes into account the remaining channels (e.g. monetary … policy reaction, exchange rate, and risk premium) total spillovers are estimated to be relatively small. In general, when …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011636202