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Political budget cycles revisited : testing the signalling process

García, Israel; Hayo, Bernd - In: European journal of political economy 69 (2021), pp. 1-18

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013275794

Political Budget Cycles Revisited: Testing the Signalling Process

Garcia, Israel; Hayo, Bernd - 2020

' perceptions of their competence and/or preferences by using the composition of the fiscal budget as a signalling tool. However … relevance of the signalling channel at the municipal level, we conducted a survey among 2,000 representative German citizens in … that they are being electorally targeted. Our analysis suggests that the municipal voting decision, at least in Germany, is …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012208400

The influence of politicians' sex on political budget cycles : an empirical analysis of Spanish municipalities

García, Israel; Hayo, Bernd - 2022 - This version: 30 May 2022

Employing a sample of Spanish municipalities from the Madrid region for the period 2010-2019, we study the influence of a politician's sex on political budget cycles (PBCs). The Madrid region is subject to a homogenous set of budget rules, which allows consistently categorising budget...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013198684

Do expected downturns kill political budget cycles?

Bohn, Frank; Sturm, Jan-Egbert - 2020

The political budget cycle (PBC) literature argues that governments expand deficits in election years. However, what happens when an economic downturn is expected? Will the government allow the deficit to expand even further, or will it resort to spending cuts and tax increases? When voters...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012233000

Economic, political and institutional determinants of budget deficits in the European Union

Bayar, Ali H.; Smeets, Bram - 2009

Using an extended data set of EU countries ranging from 1971-2006 and relevant econometric methods, we investigate the economic, political, and institutional determinants of government deficits in the EU. The results show a strong opportunistic behaviour of policymakers which leads to political...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003831961

Manipulating fiscal forecasts : evidence from the German States

Kauder, Björn; Potrafke, Niklas; Schinke, Christoph - 2017

We examine whether German state governments manipulated fiscal forecasts before elections. Our data set includes three fiscal measures over the period 1980-2014. The results do not show that electoral motives influenced fiscal forecasts in West German states. By contrast, East German state...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011597259

State Fiscal Adjustment During Times of Stress : Possible Causes of the Severity and Composition of Budget Cuts

Clemens, Jeffrey P. - 2012

Efforts to maintain balanced budgets, driven in part by formal requirements, lead to substantial pro-cyclicality in states' capital investments, transfers to local governments, and spending in areas like education and transportation. Extensive reliance on relatively volatile revenue sources...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013098483

What determines fiscal policy? : evidence from German states

Berger, Helge (contributor); Holler, Anika (contributor) - 2007

This paper explores the factors behind the time path of real spending and revenue in the West German states from 1975 to 2004. The empirical approach stresses robustness and takes into account a large set of economic and political variables. Our results suggest that common economic factors and,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003726324

The political economy of shadow banking : debt, finance, and distributive politics under a Kalecki-Goodwin-Minsky SFC framework

Fischer, Eloy; López Bernardo, Javier - 2014

This paper describes the political economy of shadow banking and how it relates to the dramatic institutional changes experienced by global capitalism over past 100 years. We suggest that the dynamics of shadow banking rest on the distributive tension between workers and firms. Politics wedge...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010356676

Do Fiscal Rules Cause Fiscal Discipline Over the Electoral Cycle?

Eklou, Kodjovi - 2020

This paper estimates the causal effect of fiscal rules on political budget cycles in a sample of 67 developing countries over the period 1985-2007. We exploit the geographical pattern in the adoption of fiscal rules to isolate an exogenous source of variation in the adoption of national fiscal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012843304

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