heterogeneity in perceptions of the precision of new signals drive disagreement among professional forecasters. While the level of … disagreement varies over the business cycle, differences in beliefs persist over time. …

We study the term structure of disagreement of professional forecasters for key macroeconomic variables. We document a … of disagreement differs markedly across variables: the term structure is downward-sloping for real output growth …, relatively flat for CPI inflation, and upward-sloping for the federal funds rate; 3) disagreement is time varying at all horizons …

about the dynamics of the processes itself. We then develop a theory of endogenous foresight in which the type of foresight …