The purpose of a management earnings forecast is to forecast the eventual earnings figure released to the market at the earnings announcement date. To the extent that management earnings forecasts should reduce periodic shocks by reducing information asymmetry, stock return volatility is...

Our ability to forecast degrades rapidly the further out we predict. Even if we do manage to accurately forecast an event, the magnitude and consequences of that event usually astonish us. On the rare occasion where we manage to accurately forecast the event, its magnitude and consequences, our...