This study aims to forecast oil prices using evolutionary techniques such as gene expression programming (GEP) and artificial neural network (NN) models to predict oil prices over the period from January 2, 1986 to June 12, 2012. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models are...

Forecasting plays an essential role in energy economics. With new challenges and use cases in the energy system, forecasts have to meet more complex requirements, such as increasing temporal and spatial resolution of data. The concept of machine learning can meet these requirements by providing...

This paper proposes a novel theory, coined as Topological Tail Dependence Theory, that links the mathematical theory behind Persistent Homology (PH) and the financial stock market theory. This study also proposes a novel algorithm to measure topological stock market changes as well as the...

Predicting stock returns has been a never ending endeavour of both, practitioners and academics. Accurate forecasts are crucial for investment decisions and performances as well as for analysing market microstructures. This paper offers an innovative approach towards forecasting based on Neural...

Electricity price forecasting has become an area of increasing relevance in recent years. Despite the growing interest in predictive algorithms, the challenges are difficult to overcome given the restricted access to relevant data series and the lack of accurate metrics. Multiple models have...

In this paper, I apply univariate and vector autoregressive (VAR) models to forecast inflation in Vietnam. To investigate the forecasting performance of the models, two naive benchmark models (one is a variant of a random walk and the other is an autoregressive model) are first built based on...

Monitoring and forecasting price developments in the euro area is essential in the light of the second pillar of the ECBu0092s monetary policy strategy. This study analyses whether the forecasting accuracy of forecasting aggregate euro area inflation can be improved by aggregating forecasts of...

We analyse the performance of budgetary and growth forecasts of all stability and convergence programmes submitted by EU member states over the last decade. Differences emerge for the bias in budgetary projections across countries. As a second step we explore whether economic, political and...

The paper presents an incomplete competition model (ICM), where inflation is determined jointly with unit labour cost growth. The ICM is estimated on data for the Euro area and evaluated against existing models, i.e. the implicit inflation equation of the Area Wide model (AWM) - cf. Fagan, Henry...