We introduce a new measure called Inflation-at-Risk (I@R) associated with (left and right) tail inflation risk. We … estimate I@R using survey-based density forecasts. We show that it contains information not covered by usual inflation risk … indicators which focus on inflation uncertainty and do not distinguish between the risks of low or high future inflation outcomes …

What is the probability of high inflation; how high, when? These questions are important to all investors since even … characterizes this as The War On Savers. Higher inflation is possible, at 4% or more, with even worse effects. There are heated … debates about the probability and timing of high inflation, but our review of the extensive literature reveals no reliable way …

Inflation rates are highly persistent and extremely difficult to predict. Most statistical predictions based on … inflation forecasting that does not specify or estimate any predictive regressions, but rather starts by estimating a … contemporaneous relation between inflation rate and a short-term interest rate, and then relies on the forward interest rate curve to …

generalized Phillip curve for three inflation-targeting countries and produced evidence of significant time-variation in most of … the predictors. We compare the performance of the priors in density forecast of inflation allowing for constant and …

A vector error-correction model (VECM) that forecasts inflation between the current quarter and eight quarters ahead is … found to provide significant leading information about inflation. The model focusses on the effects of deviations of M1 from … output gap and past prices. In out-of-sample forecasts of the eight-quarter inflation rate from 1978 on, the VECM had a mean …

The ability of the New Keynesian Phillips curve to explain US inflation dynamics when official central bank forecasts … (Greenbook forecasts) are used as a proxy for inflation expectations is examined. The New Keynesian Phillips curve is estimated … using actual data on future inflation as conventionally employed in empirical work under the assumption of rational …

**The following is a description of the paper and not the actual abstract.** Inflation targeting is shown to imply … inflation forecast targeting: the central bank's inflation forecast becomes an explicit intermediate target. Inflation forecast … quickly the inflation forecast is adjusted towards the inflation target. Money growth or exchange rate targeting is generally …

Inflation targeting is shown to imply inflation forecast targeting: the central bank's inflation forecast becomes an … explicit intermediate target. Inflation forecast targeting simplifies both implementation and monitoring of monetary policy …. The weight on output stabilization determines how quickly the inflation forecast is adjusted towards the inflation target …