Since Meese and Rogoff (1983) results showed that no model could outperform a random walk in predicting exchange rates. Many papers have tried to find a forecasting methodology that could beat the random walk, at least for certain forecasting periods. This Element compares the Purchasing Power...

The medium-term predictability of exchange rate movements is examined using three models of fundamentals: purchasing power parity, the monetary model, and uncovered interest parity. While the first two approaches yield favorable in-sample results, these largely reflect finite-sample estimation...

In this paper we evaluate a set of Colombian exchange rate forecasts during 1995-2005, using a Purchasing Power of Parity Exchange Rate Model (PPPER). Our first finding is that the computed forecasts seem to validate the use of this model under certain conditions given that, theoretically, it...