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Heterogeneous expectations among professional forecasters

Conrad, Christian; Lahiri, Kajal - 2023

heterogeneity in perceptions of the precision of new signals drive disagreement among professional forecasters. While the level of … disagreement varies over the business cycle, differences in beliefs persist over time. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014472058

Heterogeneous expectations among professional forecasters

Conrad, Christian; Lahiri, Kajal - 2024

signals drive disagreement among professional forecasters. While the level of disagreement varies over the business cycle …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015084332

Returns to Informational Advantages : The Case of Analysts' Forecast Revisions

Abdel-Khalik, A. Rashad - 2014

This paper evaluates whether the primary and secondary dissemination of earnings forecast revisions by security analysts is reflected in security prices. Security prices were used to determine the profitability (before the cost of search) of trading strategies based on the nonpublic knowledge of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013053009

Forecasting regional industrial production with high-frequency electricity consumption data

Lehmann, Robert; Möhrle, Sascha - 2022

In this paper, we study the predictive power of electricity consumption data for regional economic activity. Using unique weekly and monthly electricity consumption data for the second-largest German state, the Free State of Bavaria, we conduct a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting experiment for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013362425

Optimal foresight

Chahrour, Ryan; Jurado, Kyle - 2020

Agents have foresight when they receive information about a random process above and beyond the information contained in its current and past history. In this paper, we propose an information-theoretic measure of the quantity of foresight in an information structure, and show how to separate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012606997

Quantifying qualitative survey data : new insights on the (ir)rationality of firms' forecasts

Botsis, Alexandros; Görtz, Christoph; Sakellarēs, … - 2020

Using a novel dataset that contains qualitative firm survey data on sales forecasts as well as balance-sheet data on realized sales, we document that only major forecast errors are predictable and display autocorrelation. This result is a particular violation of the Full Information Rational...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012174792

Noisy information and fundamental disagreement

Andrade, Philippe; Crump, Richard K.; Eusepi, Stefano; … - 2013

We study the term structure of disagreement of professional forecasters for key macroeconomic variables. We document a … of disagreement differs markedly across variables: the term structure is downward-sloping for real output growth …, relatively flat for CPI inflation, and upward-sloping for the federal funds rate; 3) disagreement is time varying at all horizons …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010222893

A Systematic Comparison of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts with Judgmental Forecasts of Novices - are There Substantial Differences?

Leitner, Johannes; Schmidt, Robert - 2004

The study at hand deals with the expectations of professional analysts and novices in the context of foreign exchange markets. We analyze the respective forecasting accuracy and our results indicate that there exist substantial differences between professional forecasts and judgmental forecasts...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014072684

Forecasting tourist arrivals using origin country macroeconomics

Chatziantoniou, Ioannis; Degiannakis, Stavros; Eeckels, … - In: Applied economics 48 (2016) 25/27, pp. 2571-2585

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011591374

News-based forecasts of macroeconomic indicators : a semantic path model for interpretable predictions

Feuerriegel, Stefan; Gordon, Julius - In: European journal of operational research : EJOR 272 (2019) 1, pp. 162-175

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011941796

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